By Erin Handley, ABC News wires
The historic city of
Istanbul has fallen into Opposition hands for the first time in 25 years.
Key points:
·
The President's
request for the election to be done over backfired spectacularly
·
The newly-elected
mayor's inclusive narrative was in contrast to his rival's populist
fearmongering
·
The election result
could galvanise opposition parties and splinter Mr Erdogan's AKP
It was a symbolic loss
for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in more ways than one.
Mr Erdogan was elected
mayor of Istanbul in 1994, launching his political career. More recently, he
was widely reported to have said: "Whoever wins Istanbul, wins
Turkey".
The Opposition secular
candidate Ekrem Imamoglu clinched a victory in the mayoral race in March, in a
race so tight that Mr Erdogan's Islamist ruling party, the Justice and
Development Party (AKP), demanded a do-over,
citing "irregularities".
When Turkey's election
body complied and ordered a re-run, it was criticised as "plain
dictatorship".
But the second tilt at
the mayoral race has backfired spectacularly for Mr Erdogan's candidate, with
Mr Imamoglu, from the Republican People's Party (CHP), taking his margin from
13,500 votes to more than 800,000.
With the Istanbul
result, Turkey's top three cities are now held by the Opposition, marking a
shift in the political landscape that has been dominated by authoritarianism
and purges in a post-2016 coup crackdown.
In a country where the
judiciary and election bodies sit squarely under the Government's thumb, how
did Istanbul return such a result, and what does it mean for Mr Erdogan's
Turkey?
On Sunday, tens of
thousands of people flooded the streets of Istanbul in the wake of the result,
waving flags and setting off flares in celebration.
"This re-run
[election] was one to put an end to the dictatorship," Gulcan Demirkaya, a
48-year-old housewife from an AKP-leaning district, told Reuters.
"The one-man rule
should come to an end."
Closer to home, Hilkat
Ozgun, a scientist and the head of the Australian Turkish Cultural Platform,
said political allegiances were divided in the Australian Turkish community.
But she told the ABC
that for some young migrants looking for opportunities in Australia, now
"they have hope that one day they can go back to Turkey".
"People are
really happy about the result," Ms Ozgun said.
Mr Imamoglu had become
a symbol of hope, she said.
"He'll be good
for Turkey's future."
What made Mr Imamoglu
stand out from his opponent — former prime minister Binali Yildirim — was his
tone.
"He had a very
inclusive narrative, very opposite to this populist, fearmongering, and
divisive or polarising narrative that the AKP Government and their allies … ran
against him," Tezcan Gumus, a lecturer in Turkish politics at the
University of Melbourne, said.
Mr Imamoglu, whose
name means "son of an Imam", went out of his way to appeal to
conservative heartlands and religious voters, at times singing the call to
prayer in mosques himself, Dr Gumus said.
Mr Imamoglu's victory
was all the more remarkable because Turkey's Opposition was routinely denied
airtime and because the Government exercised control over judicial and
electoral bodies, he said.
"It's absolutely
staggering. It's a massive result and it shows the loss of trust they have
towards Erdogan's Government," he said.
The Opposition was
able to garner grassroots support, despite campaigning in an environment where
upwards of 90 per cent of Turkey's television news channels and newspapers are
pro-Government.
"Although there
are elections, the landscape is so heavily manipulated to advantage Erdogan and
his party," Dr Gumus told the ABC.
Cracks within Erdogan's party
Almost exactly three
years ago, Mr Erdogan's face was broadcast internationally, as he video-called
the Turkish people from his smartphone.
A military coup was
ongoing, he said, calling for his supporters to take to the streets, where
gunfire and explosions rocked Istanbul and the capital Ankara.
In the resulting purge, 150,000
state officials, teachers and academics have been sacked, 500,000 people have
been investigated and more than 300 journalists have been arrested.
Less than a year after
the coup attempt, the country voted in a referendum to transform from a
parliamentary democracy into a presidential system, cementing Mr Erdogan's grip
by granting him sweeping new powers.
Winning Istanbul was
not just about prestige — the city's GDP accounts for more than 30 per cent of
the country's economy.
"Erdogan has
fought tooth and nail not to lose Istanbul," Dr Gumus said.
"But going for a
re-run — it's dented his democratic legitimacy. Because Erdogan has always
throughout his career — no matter how authoritarian he is — he's always looked
at the ballot box as the justification for his rule."
He might have lost
this municipal election, but Mr Erdogan still controls the levers of the
Government, Dr Gumus said. The next presidential election is not slated until
2023.
"He's a political
animal. He's a survivor. And four years is a long time in Turkish
politics," he said.
But the Istanbul
result does send a message, and could galvanise opposition parties into
alliances, or also cause splintering within the AKP, where cracks are already
appearing.
There are murmurs that
a number of senior powerbrokers within AKP, including a former president and
former prime minister, could announce the creation of rival parties that could
jeopardise Mr Erdogan's rule, Dr Gumus said.
"It shows that
the veneer of invincibility that the AKP has built up over them since they've
been in power is actually slowly eroding," he said.
