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Monday, January 14, 2013

Planet stopped warming 16 years ago

John Hirst, Chief Executive of UK Met Office

Just when I was beginning to believe that global warming was real, the UK Met Office's own figures show there has been no significant increase in the world's temperatures since 1997.  Even though Mr Hirst earns more than the British Prime Minister, he failed to predict a wet summer and one of the snowiest winters in British history.

The world stopped getting warmer 16 years ago, he tells us, and since then, global warming has 'plateaued' or 'paused.'  Between 1997 until August 2012, there was no discernible rise in global temperatures.

The new study was compiled from 3000 measuring points on land and sea and released quietly on the internet on Christmas Eve.  The Met has come under fire for deliberately releasing the report at a time when most journalists around the world were on holidays, hoping that nobody would notice.

Professor Phil Jones

Remember Professor Phil Jones, director of the Climate Change Unit from the British University of East Anglia?  He was at the centre of the Climategate debacle over leaked emails three years ago, so it was no surprise to learn that he has dismissed the study, saying that 16 years is not a long enough time-frame from which to draw conclusions.

Yet in 2009, when the plateau was already becoming apparent and being discussed by scientists, he told a colleague in one of the Climategate emails:  Bottom line - the 'no upward trend' has to continue for a total of 15 years before we get worried.

Professor Curry

Professor Judith Curry, head of the climate science department at America's Georgia Tech University said the computer models used to predict future warming were 'deeply flawed.'

Prof Jones also admitted that climate models were imperfect.  "We don't fully understand how to input things like changes in the oceans, and because we don't fully understand it, you could say that natural variability is now working to suppress the warming - we don't know what natural variability is doing."

According to the Met's latest figures, since 1880, the planet has only warmed by 0.75 degrees.  So what about all that muck that poured into the atmosphere as world industrialization took hold?  The study shows that over the last 130 years, it's hardly made a difference.

It's easy to be convinced that the planet is heating up when we see with our own eyes how our weather patterns have become more extreme - last year we had devastating floods and this year raging bush fires and heat waves.  

Professor David Karoly

And there aren't many people who know more about climate change than Professor David Karoly who is scientific advisor to our Climate Commission.

He tells us that Australia's average temperature has increased by 0.9 degrees since 1910 and over the next 50 years, he is expecting 2 to 3 degrees more warming.

I just wish they'd make up their minds.